New Delhi, September 22, 2026: A weather system over the Bay of Bengal is intensifying as it moves towards the eastern coast of India, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall, strong winds and possible flooding in parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
The system is currently classified as a depression, not a cyclone. According to the latest IMD updates, it is expected to intensify into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coast.
The system is likely to cross the coast between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur during the night of September 23 and the early hours of September 24.
Is Cyclone Arnab Forming?
The possibility of the system becoming Cyclone Arnab has generated considerable attention, but the IMD has not yet classified it as a cyclonic storm.
Under the regional naming list, Arnab is the name that would be assigned to the next cyclonic storm forming in the North Indian Ocean. The name was contributed by Bangladesh and means “ocean” in Bengali.
However, the weather system must first reach the required intensity to officially be classified as a cyclonic storm.
As of September 22, the IMD’s forecast indicates that the system is expected to strengthen into a deep depression before reaching the coast. Odisha’s Chief Secretary Anu Garg also said the state had been informed that the system was expected to intensify into a deep depression rather than a cyclone.
Therefore, “Cyclone Arnab” should currently be understood as a possible future name rather than the official status of the system.
Where Is the Weather System Now?
According to the IMD’s Tuesday morning update, the depression was located over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal.
At around 8:30 am on September 22, the system was positioned near 17.9°N latitude and 86.0°E longitude.
It was approximately:
- 200 km southeast of Gopalpur, Odisha
- 200 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam, Andhra Pradesh
- 210 km south of Puri, Odisha
- 290 km east of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh
The system had moved westwards at a speed of around 18 kmph during the preceding six hours. The IMD expects it to continue moving west-northwestwards and strengthen further during the next 12 hours.
Landfall Expected Between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur
The current forecast places the likely coastal crossing between Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Gopalpur in Odisha.
The IMD expects the system to cross the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coast as a deep depression during the night of September 23 to the early hours of September 24.
This makes the coastal districts of both states the primary areas of concern over the next 48 hours.
The system is also expected to produce rough to very rough sea conditions, while winds along the coast are likely to strengthen as it approaches land.
Heavy Rainfall Warning for Odisha
Odisha is expected to experience significant rainfall under the influence of the system.
The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at several places in south Odisha on September 23 and 24, with the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall at isolated locations.
Rainfall is expected to continue in parts of the state even after the system crosses the coast, with heavy rain possible at isolated locations on September 25 and 26.
The weather system has already prompted precautionary measures in several districts.
Schools and Anganwadi centres have been ordered to remain closed in parts of Odisha as authorities prepare for the possibility of intense rainfall, waterlogging and localised flooding.
Andhra Pradesh Also Under Rain Alert
Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam are also expected to receive widespread rainfall.
The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rain at some places on September 23 and 24, while isolated areas of north Andhra Pradesh could experience extremely heavy rainfall.
The districts closer to the expected path of the system are likely to see the most significant weather impact.
Authorities have also been advised to remain alert for waterlogging, inundation and flooding in vulnerable areas.
Winds Could Reach 75 Kmph
Rainfall is not the only concern.
According to the IMD forecast, winds along and off the south Odisha–north Andhra Pradesh coast could strengthen considerably as the system approaches.
Winds of around 40–50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, were expected along the coast early Tuesday. The IMD forecast that wind speeds could increase to 50–60 kmph with gusts up to 70 kmph, and subsequently to around 55–65 kmph with gusts up to 75 kmph from September 23 into September 24.
Fishermen and coastal communities are therefore expected to remain particularly vulnerable to deteriorating sea and weather conditions.
Flooding and Waterlogging Concerns
The combination of heavy rainfall and strong winds has raised concerns over flooding in low-lying areas.
The IMD has identified a low to moderate flash-flood risk in several districts, including Gajapati, Ganjam, Nayagarh, Puri and Khurda in Odisha, as well as Vizianagaram and Srikakulam in Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the immediate period covered by its warning.
Areas that have already received substantial rainfall could face additional waterlogging if heavy showers continue.
Residents in vulnerable and low-lying locations have been advised to follow local administration and weather department advisories.
What About West Bengal?
The system is also influencing weather conditions farther north and east.
The IMD’s September 22 warning for South West Bengal and Sikkim included heavy-rain warnings for September 23 through September 26, along with thunderstorm and lightning warnings on some of those days.
However, the main impact of the current Bay of Bengal system is expected along the Odisha–Andhra Pradesh coast, where the system is forecast to make its coastal crossing.
Why the Name “Arnab” Is Trending
The term “Cyclone Arnab” has started appearing in reports and on social media because Arnab is the next name on the North Indian Ocean cyclone naming list.
But there is an important distinction.
A depression is not automatically a cyclone. The system has to intensify further and reach the threshold for classification as a cyclonic storm.
As of September 22, the IMD was forecasting intensification into a deep depression, with the expected coastal crossing also forecast at the deep-depression stage.
This means that the official status can change depending on how the system develops over the coming hours.
What Happens Next?
The next major developments are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours.
The weather system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestwards, strengthen further and approach the Odisha–Andhra Pradesh coast.
The focus will remain on:
- Whether the depression strengthens into a deep depression as forecast
- Its exact movement towards the coastline
- Rainfall intensity across Odisha and Andhra Pradesh
- Wind speeds near the coast
- The possibility of flooding in low-lying areas
- Any change in its intensity that could lead to cyclone classification
For now, the IMD’s official classification remains a depression, with strengthening into a deep depression expected. The system’s next stage of development will determine whether the name “Arnab” becomes officially relevant.
News Decode 24 will continue to track the Bay of Bengal weather system and update this story as the IMD issues fresh forecasts.
